As the Ace Man himself would say, they’re so excited about the 2009 squad in Parizona, they’re ready to get it on… right now! Paul has a preview.
by Paul Gammons
First off, if you’re not listening to the Adam Carolla Podcast, you really should. It’s raw, uninhibited Carolla (and guests) talking about life’s absurdities, his own idiosyncrasies and funny stories from the days before he got famous.
The podcast is so good, that the former Punishers (and Punks) decided to name their 2009 SFB entry after it (at least for the moment). Speaking of Parizona, a consensus vote of SearchFantasyBaseball GMs recently voted that the Carollas had this year’s best draft. Is it true? Let’s take a peek:
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First-round pick Jimmy Rollins is the Jenny McCarthy of fantasy players: after all these years, he’s just as sexy as ever (though it’d be nice if he broke up with Jim Carrey). His home run totals were down last year as he battled with an ankle issue, but when I saw him legging out a triple in the WBC two weeks ago, that convinced me he’ll be back strong this year. Plus, you’ve gotta love guys who get better as the season rolls on (get it? Rolls on? Never mind.).
Somebody needed to take a gamble on Alex Rodriguez, so Parizona scooped up the perennial first-round pick early in Rd. 2. So far, injury reports suggest he’ll be back in action around May 15. The question then is two fold: What will A-Rod produce in 3/4 of a season, one in which he may not be 100% healthy, and will he be worth a second round pick? My prediction, based on averages of his last three seasons, reduced by about 25%, would be a 90/28/105/.295. That’s well below what you’d expect from him in a full season, but better than what most fantasy hitters can offer over the course of 162 games. Seems like a solid gamble to me. Now if only we could figure out how to keep him away from Madonna and anyone whose name starts with Madam.
Dan Uggla Ks too much and doesn’t hit for average, but when 30-plus round-trippers are possible out of a second baseman, living with his flaws becomes a lot easier. Geovany Soto stormed onto the scene last year, becoming the poster boy for the next generation of great fantasy catchers. However, the Cubs are concerned about his conditioning, and I’m concerned that after nearly 500 at-bats last year, it’ll be hard for him to produce like he did in 2008. Carlos Delgado is in a contact year, and he says he’s fully healthy for the first time in many years. Do I trust him? About as much as I trust Vanity Fairnot to airbrush. Even if he can deliver 400 ABs of classic Del-GOT-it production, that’s still great value in Rd. 10. Josh Fields will man the hot corner until A-Roid returns, and while it always seems like he’s a handful of good plate appearances away from breaking out, as Chicago’s full-time third baseman to start 2009, if he’s ever going to do it, the time is now. Kelly Johnson’s a decent player, but he’s the Ringo Starr of this lineup, somehow sneaking in when nobody was looking.
Every year, Ichiro is a lock for 100 runs, 40 steals and an off-the-charts average. He’ll probably do this when he’s 40. Magglio Ordonez is a bit more of a question mark this year than in years past. His power was hampered last season by an oblique injury, yet he’s also at the stage in his career when power numbers start to trail off. I’d say 25 homers and 110 RBI is probably his ceiling, but perhaps even more Parizona needs a .300 season from him to avoid punting batting average. All the scouts say this will finally be Jeremy Hermida’s breakout season. That’s what they kept saying about Nikki Cox, too. My question is, what will a breakout look like? My forecast: 70/25/95/.280. Manning the Util spot, Adam Dunn is another low-average hitter who sure can bring the thunder… and the strikeouts. In a less favorable ballpark and in a much less favorable lineup, I think that his five-year run of 40-plus homer seasons comes to an end. Conor Jackson is kind of like the Brian Austin Green of this group; he’s just happy to be here.
Parizona ace Roy Oswalt is money in the bank. After fighting injuries earlier in his career, he’s delivered an average of 200-plus IP, 17 wins and 175 Ks over the past five years. Now that’s consistency. James Shields made the leap to fantasy greatness last year, and I like him to do everything he did last year with a lower ERA. Edinson Volquez has what it takes to be a fantasy superstar, racking up 15 wins, 206 strikeouts and only 14 homers allowed in 2008, and that’s despite battling control issues in July and August. With a little more consistency, he could easily emerge as a fantasy ace. For Josh Johnson, it’s all about whether he can stay healthy. Scouts say he has more velocity now than pre-Tommy John. Chris Carpenter is another guy returning from major arm surgery, and nobody has looked better on the mound in spring training. Does he still have 200 major league innings in him? If so, look out. Chris Young was considered a fantasy ace two years ago, but forearm issues caused by his mechanics and last year’s freak facial fractures (thanks, Mr. Pujols) have derailed his quest for greatness. He’s probably not capable of holding up over a full season, but when he’s right, few are better. Kelvim Escobar is expected to make is debut by May 1, and by all accounts he’s ready to return to top form. I don’t know if any one of Parizona’s three closers — Brandon Lyon, Frank Francisco and Jason Motte — will have their jobs on July 1, or even May 1, but for now, saves shouldn’t be a problem.
While one could make a strong case that Parizona has the best combination of pitching and hitting to start the season, nobody gets an award for having the best team on day one. Strikeouts and batting average problems could plague the offense, and the rotation hinges on several guys returning from significant injuries. Even so, I like the Carollas’ chances of getting it on… in the playoffs.
Offense: A-
Pitching: A
Paul Gammons, a columnist for PaulGammons.com, keeps a few extra liters of his blood in his armor-plated limousine; not for an emergency, he just likes the taste.
